Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market 
Author Message
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

In topic "fortran compiler"  Steve Lionel seems to be denying he ever posted
anything claiming CVF has a over-whelming
sales advantage with the following statements about my estimate that  Intel
Fortran (CVF +linux)
will comprise 95% of the fortran market..

 >We (probably I) did?  Really?  I can't imagine having ever made such a

Quote:
>claim - we certainly don't believe we have THAT much of the Fortran market
>on Windows, and can't imagine what data we would have had to support even
>that kind of claim.  I'm guessing that this is Dave's hyperbole rather than

ours.

Below link may or may not work, but it points to a comp.lang.fortran
2001/01/21 message in topic
"CVF vs. LF95 with GINO? "

where you say (paraphasing) the sales figures you have seen indicate  CVF
outsells nearest competitor 10 to 1.

http://www.*-*-*.com/ +lf95+gino&hl=en&scoring=d&rnum=...
388FC4E8.5EED20E4%40sdynamix.com

How about posting some current updates on the "sales figures your have seen"
??



Thu, 01 Apr 2004 16:06:03 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:

> In topic "Fortran compiler"  Steve Lionel seems to be denying he ever posted
> anything claiming CVF has a over-whelming
> sales advantage with the following statements about my estimate that  Intel
> Fortran (CVF +linux)
> will comprise 95% of the fortran market..

>  >We (probably I) did?  Really?  I can't imagine having ever made such a
> >claim - we certainly don't believe we have THAT much of the Fortran market
> >on Windows, and can't imagine what data we would have had to support even
> >that kind of claim.  I'm guessing that this is Dave's hyperbole rather than
> ours.

> Below link may or may not work, but it points to a comp.lang.fortran
> 2001/01/21 message in topic
> "CVF vs. LF95 with GINO? "

> where you say (paraphasing) the sales figures you have seen indicate  CVF
> outsells nearest competitor 10 to 1.

Here the part of the post that deals with the 10:1 figure:

- Show quoted text -

Quote:
> Steve Lionel wrote (on 2000/01/21):

> On Thu, 20 Jan 2000 19:10:44 -0700, "Richard E. Rossi"

> >(2) Reading this news group for some time, my impression is that CVF is
> >the prefered compiler.  Why is that (compared to LF95)?  Or, am I
> >mistaken?

> It's probably because CVF is by far the most widely used of the
> commercial compilers.  Figures I have seen from a number of sources
> suggest something like a 10:1 sales ratio compared to the next
> best-selling compiler.  This by itself doesn't mean that CVF is
> necessarily any better than the others, but it does indicate that
> there are a lot of Fortran users who have chosen to purchase our
> product.  I'd hope that most of them are happy with it.

The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me to believe that Steve
Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_ environment. Given
this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too unbelievable - they may or may
not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes the rest of the
(non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

So it seems to me that all the hullabaloo is due to a remark apparently taken out of context.
And let's not discount the fact that maybe Steve misinterpreted some numbers, or the numbers he
saw were "cooked" by marketers. Who the hell knows? Who the hell cares? I think it's grossly
unfair to attach such a profundity to words posted to a Usenet newsgroup - unfair both to Steve
Lionel and to the the rest of "us". Now instead of writing posts aiding CVF (and fortran in
general) programmers he may feel that he has to defend a statement he made nearly a year
ago.... or that all his posts must read more like legalese to ensure that every single phrase
and comment is crystal clear to every single reader.

Quote:
> How about posting some current updates on the "sales figures your have seen" ??

How about contacting the CVF Sales/Marketing folk and get the numbers from them? (Of course you
will have to get the same numbers from every other Windows Fortran compiler vendor to do the
analysis.....) And everyone who also wants to see them can contact you and you can email the
numbers to them.

Maybe a comp.econ.fortran newsgroup should be started?  :o)

cheers,

paulv

--
Paul van Delst             Religious and cultural

Ph: (301)763-8000 x7274    fantasy
Fax:(301)763-8545                   V.S.Naipaul



Fri, 02 Apr 2004 22:59:23 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:


> > In topic "Fortran compiler"  Steve Lionel seems to be denying he ever posted
> > anything claiming CVF has a over-whelming
> > sales advantage with the following statements about my estimate that  Intel
> > Fortran (CVF +linux)
> > will comprise 95% of the fortran market..

> >  >We (probably I) did?  Really?  I can't imagine having ever made such a
> > >claim - we certainly don't believe we have THAT much of the Fortran market
> > >on Windows, and can't imagine what data we would have had to support even
> > >that kind of claim.  I'm guessing that this is Dave's hyperbole rather than
> > ours.

> > Below link may or may not work, but it points to a comp.lang.fortran
> > 2001/01/21 message in topic
> > "CVF vs. LF95 with GINO? "

> > where you say (paraphasing) the sales figures you have seen indicate  CVF
> > outsells nearest competitor 10 to 1.

> Here the part of the post that deals with the 10:1 figure:

> > Steve Lionel wrote (on 2000/01/21):

> > On Thu, 20 Jan 2000 19:10:44 -0700, "Richard E. Rossi"

> > >(2) Reading this news group for some time, my impression is that CVF is
> > >the prefered compiler.  Why is that (compared to LF95)?  Or, am I
> > >mistaken?

> > It's probably because CVF is by far the most widely used of the
> > commercial compilers.  Figures I have seen from a number of sources
> > suggest something like a 10:1 sales ratio compared to the next
> > best-selling compiler.  This by itself doesn't mean that CVF is
> > necessarily any better than the others, but it does indicate that
> > there are a lot of Fortran users who have chosen to purchase our
> > product.  I'd hope that most of them are happy with it.

> The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me to believe that Steve
> Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_ environment. Given
> this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too unbelievable - they may or may
> not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes the rest of the
> (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

> So it seems to me that all the hullabaloo is due to a remark apparently taken out of context.
> And let's not discount the fact that maybe Steve misinterpreted some numbers, or the numbers he
> saw were "cooked" by marketers. Who the hell knows? Who the hell cares? I think it's grossly
> unfair to attach such a profundity to words posted to a Usenet newsgroup - unfair both to Steve
> Lionel and to the the rest of "us". Now instead of writing posts aiding CVF (and fortran in
> general) programmers he may feel that he has to defend a statement he made nearly a year
> ago.... or that all his posts must read more like legalese to ensure that every single phrase
> and comment is crystal clear to every single reader.

> > How about posting some current updates on the "sales figures your have seen" ??

> How about contacting the CVF Sales/Marketing folk and get the numbers from them? (Of course you
> will have to get the same numbers from every other Windows Fortran compiler vendor to do the
> analysis.....) And everyone who also wants to see them can contact you and you can email the
> numbers to them.

> Maybe a comp.econ.fortran newsgroup should be started?  :o)

> cheers,

> paulv

> --
> Paul van Delst             Religious and cultural

> Ph: (301)763-8000 x7274    fantasy
> Fax:(301)763-8545                   V.S.Naipaul

Well, we can hope Steve takes D Frank's comments for what they're worth
:->
I certainly had <no> trouble in deciphering the context in which Steve
meant his comments and agree it would be a shame if he (that is, Steve)
were to become less open in "defense" of attacks...and, since all his
posts are labelled as to his affiliation, besides, it is not as though
he ever tried to camoflouge non-technical info as non-Compaq(Intel?)
provided.


Fri, 02 Apr 2004 23:25:38 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:

> In topic "Fortran compiler"  Steve Lionel seems to be denying...
> where you  [Steve] say (paraphasing) the sales figures you have seen indicate  CVF
> outsells nearest competitor 10 to 1.

Shows my memory isn't yet completely gone.  THis is exactly the marketting
blurb I mentioned recalling.

Note the "outsells", which can mean any of several things, depending on the
point that the marketing folk are trying to make that day.

And note Dave's arithmetic error that I alluded to before: translating
"10 times the nearest competitor" to "90% of the market".  Steve, having
passed 3rd grade and then some, does not use a 90% number, then or ever.

It is quite possible to outsell the nearest competitor by 10 times and
still have only, say, 1% of the market.  Arithmetic on the level that
most of us learned in about 3rd grade would reveal that to require at
least 1000 competitors, which is a bit unrealistic - probably almost
as unrealistic as the translation to 90% of the market...which
magically grew to 95%, apparently from assuming that the Intel
compiler had half of the non-CVF market.  I'd have never guessed that
the Intel compiler was even close to that...a 5% number I could well
believe, but not a half of the non-CVF market.

--
Richard Maine                       |  Good judgment comes from experience;
email: my last name at host.domain  |  experience comes from bad judgment.
host: altair, domain: dfrc.nasa.gov |        -- Mark Twain



Fri, 02 Apr 2004 23:44:11 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market



Quote:
> The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me

to believe that Steve
Quote:
> Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_
environment. Given
> this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too

unbelievable - they may or may

Quote:
> not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes
the rest of the
> (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

Well of course he was referring to windows,  he plainly says so,
but according to the DOJ anti-trust-busters MS windows is a 95% o.s. market
monopoly which doesnt leave
you non-windows o.s. types a pot to hiss in, does it?


Fri, 02 Apr 2004 23:42:53 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market
On Mon, 15 Oct 2001 15:42:53 GMT, "David Frank"

Quote:



>> The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me
>to believe that Steve
>> Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_
>environment. Given
>> this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too
>unbelievable - they may or may
>> not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes
>the rest of the
>> (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

>Well of course he was referring to windows,  he plainly says so,
>but according to the DOJ anti-trust-busters MS windows is a 95% o.s. market
>monopoly which doesnt leave
>you non-windows o.s. types a pot to hiss in, does it?

<splork!>

For which market?  M$ Office or number-crunching?

You don't suppose, do you Dave, that these markets might be
different?

--
Cheers!

Dan Nagle
Purple Sage Computing Solutions, Inc.



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 02:03:01 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:

> On Mon, 15 Oct 2001 15:42:53 GMT, "David Frank"



> >> The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me
> >to believe that Steve
> >> Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_
> >environment. Given
> >> this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too
> >unbelievable - they may or may
> >> not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes
> >the rest of the
> >> (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

> >Well of course he was referring to windows,  he plainly says so,
> >but according to the DOJ anti-trust-busters MS windows is a 95% o.s. market
> >monopoly which doesnt leave
> >you non-windows o.s. types a pot to hiss in, does it?

> <splork!>

> For which market?  M$ Office or number-crunching?

> You don't suppose, do you Dave, that these markets might be
> different?

Huh- I'm getting these posts all out of order....

I don't think I've *ever* heard of anyone doing large scale number crunching on Windows
platforms (I guess what SETI is proposing/doing comes close (?)). Not to say that it couldn't
be done, but who is going to trust mission critical **operational** calculations/analysis with
severe time constraints to a windows platform/cluster? Don't they crash all the time.....? :o)

cheers,

paulv

p.s. just my opinion about very few observations of windows platforms - not official
NOAA/NCEP/anyone policy.

--
Paul van Delst             Religious and cultural

Ph: (301)763-8000 x7274    fantasy
Fax:(301)763-8545                   V.S.Naipaul



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 02:28:35 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:



> > The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me
> to believe that Steve
> > Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_
> environment. Given
> > this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too
> unbelievable - they may or may
> > not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes
> the rest of the
> > (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

> Well of course he was referring to windows,  he plainly says so,
> but according to the DOJ anti-trust-busters MS windows is a 95% o.s. market
> monopoly which doesnt leave
> you non-windows o.s. types a pot to hiss in, does it?

Fallacy: Relative market share in OS's is not necessarily related to
relative market share for a specialized type of compiler used in
those OS's.

More to the point, MS Windows is a general purpose operating system;
the overwhelming majority of its users will never need a Fortran
compiler.  I suspect (though I have no evidence to support my
suspicion) that the percentage of users of more specialized operating
systems who need a Fortran compiler is much higher than it is for
Windows, though I have no idea how the totals work out in real numbers.



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 04:40:23 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market


Quote:
> I don't think I've *ever* heard of anyone doing large scale number

crunching on Windows
Quote:
> platforms (I guess what SETI is proposing/doing comes close (?)). Not to

say that it couldn't
Quote:
> be done, but who is going to trust mission critical **operational**

calculations/analysis with
Quote:
> severe time constraints to a windows platform/cluster? Don't they crash

all the time.....? :o)

I was surprised to find that there is indeed a lot of large-scale number
crunching using Windows. Last year I visited Cornell University and their
Cluster Computing center, filled with racks of Dell (boo!) servers running
Windows 2000 and MPI.  They were thrilled with the serious computes they
were getting out of "commodity hardware" and the familiarity of Windows. See
http://www.tc.cornell.edu/AC3/index.asp for more information.  I also
attended a Cluster Computing symposium there, with presentations by
researchers at other institutions, most of them also using Windows.
Microsoft has a considerable effort in Cluster Computing as well - see
http://www.microsoft.com/windows2000/technologies/clustering/default.asp -
down towards the bottom of the page, the links for High Performance
Computing.  (The Microsoft Cluster Computing SDK CD-ROM includes a trial
copy of CVF, though it's pretty old by now...)

--

Steve Lionel
Compaq Fortran Engineering
Intel Corporation
Nashua, NH

Compaq Fortran - http://www.compaq.com/fortran
Intel Fortran - http://developer.intel.com/software/products/compilers/f50/



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 08:32:11 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market
Hi, I imagine that the "number crunching market" is mostly unix or some
variety of super computer based and the majority of that market uses
Fortran, however, I can say from a survey of purchasing data and talking
with users that there are far more users of Fortran at Lockheed Martin
on Windows (general purpose apps plus number crunching and algorithm
development) than any other platform (by factors of several 10's).  I
for one use random number generators from time to time, I assume others
do also.  Of course I don't know how that translates to other
industries.

Quote:

> On Mon, 15 Oct 2001 15:42:53 GMT, "David Frank"



> >> The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me
> >to believe that Steve
> >> Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_
> >environment. Given
> >> this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too
> >unbelievable - they may or may
> >> not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes
> >the rest of the
> >> (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

> >Well of course he was referring to windows,  he plainly says so,
> >but according to the DOJ anti-trust-busters MS windows is a 95% o.s. market
> >monopoly which doesnt leave
> >you non-windows o.s. types a pot to hiss in, does it?

> <splork!>

> For which market?  M$ Office or number-crunching?

> You don't suppose, do you Dave, that these markets might be
> different?

> --
> Cheers!

> Dan Nagle
> Purple Sage Computing Solutions, Inc.

--

Gary Scott


http://www.fortranlib.com

Support the GNU Fortran G95 Project:  http://g95.sourceforge.net



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 10:21:40 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

writes
Quote:
>Hi, I imagine that the "number crunching market" is mostly unix or some
>variety of super computer based and the majority of that market uses
>Fortran, however, I can say from a survey of purchasing data and talking
>with users that there are far more users of Fortran at Lockheed Martin
>on Windows (general purpose apps plus number crunching and algorithm
>development) than any other platform (by factors of several 10's).  I
>for one use random number generators from time to time, I assume others
>do also.  Of course I don't know how that translates to other
>industries.

From my experience there is another market, possibly best described as
"small number crunching" which is nowadays commonly done on Windows PCs
with Fortran. This is the sort of stuff which a few years ago was
considered serious number crunching, requiring big hardware and taking a
lot of time. Computers have got bigger and faster, but these problems
have stayed the same so now they fit quite happily on a PC. and run in a
reasonable time. The speed and efficiency of Fortran is a big advantage
for a GUI program where the calculations take a noticeable time, but
when the time is only a few seconds it's not the end of the world if
Windows should fall over, and the gain in speed of a "serious" computer
wouldn't be worth losing the convenience of all your employees being
able to run simulations on their laptops in the field.

Catherine.
--
Catherine Rees Lay



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 20:35:10 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:



> > I don't think I've *ever* heard of anyone doing large scale number
> crunching on Windows
> > platforms (I guess what SETI is proposing/doing comes close (?)). Not to
> say that it couldn't
> > be done, but who is going to trust mission critical **operational**
> calculations/analysis with
> > severe time constraints to a windows platform/cluster? Don't they crash
> all the time.....? :o)

> I was surprised to find that there is indeed a lot of large-scale number
> crunching using Windows.

Well there you go. Those lucky {*filter*}s can number crunch *and* read MS Word email attachments!
:o)

Thanks for the links.

cheers,

paulv

--
Paul van Delst             Religious and cultural

Ph: (301)763-8000 x7274    fantasy
Fax:(301)763-8545                   V.S.Naipaul



Sat, 03 Apr 2004 21:17:22 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:



> > The rest of the message (which I won't post for sake of brevity) leads me
> to believe that Steve
> > Lionel was referring to the market for a Fortran compiler in the _Windows_
> environment. Given
> > this rather narrow focus, I don't think Steve's remarks are too
> unbelievable - they may or may
> > not be wrong, but they're within the realm of possibility. If one includes
> the rest of the
> > (non-MS) world I doubt that the 10:1 figure is accurate.

> Well of course he was referring to windows,  he plainly says so,
> but according to the DOJ anti-trust-busters MS windows is a 95% o.s. market
> monopoly which doesnt leave
> you non-windows o.s. types a pot to hiss in, does it?

Lets see

1. Market share in OS's does not correspond to market share in technical
computing. In my neighborhood most people use more than one OS, about 80-90%
UNIX (maybe 80-90% of that Linux), 70-80% Windows,  10-15% Mac. But few people
use a Fortran compiler while using Windows or the Mac, and most of those using
UNIX use a Fortran compiler some of the time. In my neighborhood the Fortran
Market appears to be much more than half UNIX.

2.  Within  the Windows market, Metcalf's FAQ
( http://www.*-*-*.com/ ) lists the following vendors Absoft,
Compaq, Fujitsu, Intel, Lahey, NA Software, Salford, and EPC. These were also
the vendors when the 10x calim was made. Compaq's maket share would be, Compaq/
(Absoft + Compaq + Fujitsu + Intel + Lahey + NA Software + Salford,+ EPC.).
Assuming the 10x was not mistaken, then the minimum market share for Compaq at
the time of the claim can be estimated by assuming non-Compaq vendors had
comparable sales => Compaq Window's market share > 10/(1+10+1+1+1+1+1+1) =
10/17 or about 59%. If the 10x claim was valid all you can claim is that Compaq
had between 60% and 90% of the Windows market when it made the 10x claim.

3. It is not at all clear how Compaq arrived at that 10x claim. It appears to
have been exclusively Windows, but was it US, North America, or worldwide.
Retail, wholesale, or direct sales? How did it estimate it's competitor's
shares?

4. It is likely that the 10x claim is no longer valid. Sales change rapidly in
the technical market, particularly comparing the time when Compaq had newly
entered a large market, with when it was an established presence. While I
expect that "Compaq" is still by far the {*filter*} WIndows vendor, it would not
surprise me to find that {*filter*} has changed to be about five times larger
than its nearest competitor.



Sun, 04 Apr 2004 01:50:27 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

...

Quote:
> 3. It is not at all clear how Compaq arrived at that 10x claim. It appears to
> have been exclusively Windows, but was it US, North America, or worldwide.
> Retail, wholesale, or direct sales? How did it estimate it's competitor's
> shares?

As I recall, the 10x claim was made in the wake of a major
new release of Compaq's compiler.  So, it was less a statement
about usual market share than about the sales spike experienced
with a new release.  Presumably other vendors see elevated
market shares when they go through major release cycles too.

The Digital/Compaq/Intel compiler is a good product with much
going for it.  But attempts to cast it as the "de-facto standard"
are exagerated and counterproductive.

--
J. Giles



Sun, 04 Apr 2004 08:28:09 GMT  
 Estimating Intel's share of Fortran market

Quote:

> 2.  Within  the Windows market, Metcalf's FAQ
> (http://www.fortran.com/metcalf.htm) lists the following vendors Absoft,
> Compaq, Fujitsu, Intel, Lahey, NA Software, Salford, and EPC. These were also
> the vendors when the 10x calim was made. Compaq's maket share would be, Compaq/
> (Absoft + Compaq + Fujitsu + Intel + Lahey + NA Software + Salford,+ EPC.).
> Assuming the 10x was not mistaken, then the minimum market share for Compaq at
> the time of the claim can be estimated by assuming non-Compaq vendors had
> comparable sales => Compaq Window's market share > 10/(1+10+1+1+1+1+1+1) =
> 10/17 or about 59%. If the 10x claim was valid all you can claim is that Compaq
> had between 60% and 90% of the Windows market when it made the 10x claim.

Not a bad estimate considering the simplified arithmetic. To see how
close it is let me paraphrase, a knowledgeable source, answering the
following question:

Q  Which Fortran compilers should we support to cover most of the PC
market?
A  "It is safe to say that Microsoft has the major share and you
would do well to concentrate on them alone."

It's safe to assume that substituting "Microsoft" with "Compaq" yields a
market remainder the size of a round off noise. However, the voluminous
traffic to http://netlib.org suggests that the remainder is still large
enough to feed a few extra vendors, including a groveling Mathworks with
their Fortran canning operations.

--
Dr.B.Voh
------------------------------------------------------
Applied Algorithms    http://sdynamix.com



Sun, 04 Apr 2004 09:32:00 GMT  
 
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