DC Y2K Weather Report (Real GPS, ICBMs, ALC, 250K grant) 
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 DC Y2K Weather Report (Real GPS, ICBMs, ALC, 250K grant)

        Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 9
            "February 24, 1998 -  675 days to go."  WRP65

    (c) 1997, 1998 Cory Hamasaki - I grant permission to distribute and
reproduce this article as long as this entire document is reproduced in
its entirety including this notice.  I do not grant permission to
a commercial publisher to reprint this in print media.

As seen in
   USENET:comp.software.year-2000
    http://www.*-*-*.com/
    http://www.*-*-*.com/

Please fax or email copies of this to your geek pals, especially those
idiots who keep sending you lightbulb, blonde, or Bill Gates jokes,
and urban legends like the Arizona rocket car story.

If you have a Y2K webpage, feel free to host the Weather Reports.

Don't forget- April 2, 3 1998, Geek Out.
Project Dumbass needs you.

In this issue:

1. Old GPS News
2. Feb DC Y2K Meeting Embeddeds
   ICBM Launch Controls and Rick Cowles.
3. ALC 10 JCL, Assembly Listing
4. Quarter Million Dollars offered for Y2K idea
5. CCCC

--------------- Old GPS News? ------------------

<GCN is a DC area tabloid that reports on... the government and computers.  I
invoke fair use as an Y2K commentator and educator and offer this digital
clipping to my 'students' as part of our Y2K studies.>

"Government Computer News" 17 April 1997

Gregory Slabodkin

DOD Computing
What's to be done with GPS?

Paige says the vital system will be readied and waiting for the year
2000. Of the Defense Department's myriad systems, the Global Positioning
System is most vulnerable to malfunction and most likely to suffer
devastating consequences due to year 2000 code problems, DOD officials
have concluded. "People are depending on this system far beyond
anybody's expectations," said Lt. Col. Rick Reaser, chief engineer for
the Navstar GPS Joint Program Office at Los Angeles Air Force Base,
Calif. "People's lives depend on this system, and we take that very
seriously.

No play toy

DOD plans for all military aircraft to use GPS for navigation by 2000
and the military's growing dependence on GPS-guided smart bombs have
heightened Pentagon concerns about the vulnerability of the navigation
system to year 2000 glitches. First showcased during Operation Desert
Storm, GPS has become the source for precise and accurate targeting
information for the Tomahawk cruise missile, Joint Direct Attack
Munition, Army Tactical Missile System and Joint Standoff Weapon.

"The most significant system today that is not [year 2000] compliant is
GPS, which would have more impact than anything else," Emmett Paige Jr.,
assistant secretary of Defense for command, control, communications and
intelligence, recently told the House Government Reform and Oversight
Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology. "Yet
I have no doubt that GPS will be ready along with all the other weapon
systems and command and control systems in the Department of Defense."

The GPS year 2000 problem is threefold and reflects the three components
of the navigation system: the space segment, the ground control segment
and the user segment. GPS consists of 24 operational Navstar satellites
mounted on six orbital planes that continuously broadcast navigation
signals to ground stations. Specialized computers built into
inexpensive, portable GPS receivers in turn derive highly accurate
position and velocity information by correlating data uploaded to the
satellites from ground stations.

Ground gaffes

According to documents provided to Congress earlier this month by
Paige's office, the year 2000 problems within the space segment can be
found in two pieces of ground equipment: the Bus Ground Support
Equipment vehicle checkout stations and the Boeing Mission Operation
Support Center (MOSC).

Software to correct the year 2000 problem in the Bus Ground Support
Equipment vehicle checkout stations already exists, and DOD will install
it during the normal systems maintenance lifecycle. But the MOSC date
code problem lies in its underlying commercial products. So DOD will
replace MOSC with the Integrated Mission Operation Support Center
(IMOSC), which it expects to finish in December 1999.

But GPS JPO is working to push the completion date up at least six
months to June 1999. The IMOSC project is part of a $1.3 billion GPS
Block IIF satellite contract that DOD awarded to Boeing Co. last April.
The GPS ground control segment consists of six monitor stations, four
ground antennas and a master control station. The software needing date
code fixes generates the uplink code to the satellites. It was written
in the 1970s and uses only two-digit date fields.

The original plan was to replace the old code as part of a modernization
of the ground control segment, or Architecture Evolutionary Plan (AEP).
But schedule delays have pushed AEP's operational beginning to mid-2000.

"It looks like that schedule is slipping out," Reaser said. "The
replacement system may or may not be there in time for year 2000
rollover. So what we're going to do is upgrade the current system to be
Y2K-tolerant as sort of the backup plan which may become our primary
plan."

Plan B

GPS JPO officials have decided to rewrite some of the existing legacy
code for the ground control segment at a cost of $7.6 million. Lockheed
Martin Federal Systems has been assessing the code and will rewrite it
under an existing maintenance contract. Until then, GPS JPO will
incrementally integrate modifications as part of its normal software
maintenance releases. Though the GPS user segment does not have a year
2000 problem per se, it does have a clock overflow problem, the Z-count
rollover. This rollover occurs every 1,024 weeks; the first one comes in
August 1999.

GPS' user segment consists of the antennas and receiver-processors that
provide positioning, velocity and precise timing to the users, such as
the Army handheld GPS receivers and Navy shipboard receivers. Although
GPS JPO established specifications for GPS receivers, some manufacturers
did not account for the Z-count rollover in the satellites' atomic
clocks, which synchronize the navigational signals.

To date, the only GPS receivers that GPS JPO has identified as having
the Z-count rollover problem are older Rockwell-Collins 3A airborne
receivers and 3S shipboard receivers with Link 40 software.

As part of scheduled depot maintenance, users must manually reset
affected receivers. Those with flash memory or removable programmable
read-only memory can be reset easily to accommodate the rollover. Users
will have to replace altogether any receivers that cannot be reset.

<Your homework assignment is to analyze this report and decide for yourself
whether the MOSC project will succeed and assess the consequences.  The
final exam will be in 675 days.  This will count as 50% of your grade.  Hint
to the student: Lockheed Martin is the same company that is doing the superb
job on the FAA's computers.>

<I looked for more recent info than April 17, 1997 but couldn't find anything.
In Y2K, no news is a sure sign of a coverup.  Everyone's been focused on
Z-count, not the MOSC or AEP.  Similarly in banking, we're all looking at our
credit cards and have no information on check processing, loan reconciliation,
savings account processing, money markets, CD's, or electronic funds
transfers.>

------------- Feb DC Y2K Meeting --------------------
------------- ICBM Launch Controls ------------------
While we're in butt-pucker mode, here's my record copy of the February DC
Y2K meeting:

DC Y2K User's group meeting - Embeddeds - Fannie Mae - February 17, 1998, This
is a public, unclassified meeting held monthly in Washington DC.  5:30-9:00PM.
There were 200+ attendees.

There were five speakers:

1. Diane Shields - VP CACI - Submarine Fire Control Systems, ICBM Launch
Controls.

6 months ago, CACI discovered "a major, catastrophic problem" in ICBM launch
controls.  The launch control system will fail because of a Y2K date and time
flaw. The failure was fail-safe, as it's supposed to be.  The ICBMs will be
unlaunchable. Of course, that presents another problem.

Diane gave a failure time and date which is in the future. Certainly the
software will be fixed by then, if it is not already fixed.  She would not
have reported to a user's forum like DC Y2K unless it had already been
fixed and the fix tested by an IV&V team.

She detailed the bit level anomaly that initiates the problem.  It has to do
with characteristics of binary counters and made sense.  It is analogous
to but not related to the GPS roll over problem.

Diane enumerated several problems with working with legacy embedded
systems, a major one was: Subsystem vendors go out of business.

She explained Black Box v. White Box testing; in White box testing, you can
open the box and test the components and analyze the machine states.

She offered some guidance: Use Qualified Personnel; Start in 1997 <oops>;
Have accurate documentation; Keep records; Too late for large systems.

2. Pete Himmelburger - GTE - Phones

License latch; ambiguity; horizontal tests; unit v. system tests; test
platforms unavailable at any cost; only fix absolutely critical; plan, plan,
plan; document. Horizontal tests are full systems tests.

3. Rick Cowles - DEC/Compaq - Utilities

Nukes provide 20% of US Power; 60% in NJ; no easy fixes; Industry late; cited
failures discovered in testing.

4. Hernando Quintero - BRI - Power generation

Based on technical assessment of hundreds of systems in 12 generating
facilities including Gas, Oil, and Coal but not Nuclear, 400 person days per
site; expert engineers.

15% of systems are not Y2K compliant and have problems ranging from minor
inconveniance to loss of life.  He didn't say but I'm guessing he's talking
about boiler explosions and fires.  There are 200 major control and monitoring
systems in a power plant.

They found problems found in ...

read more »



Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report (Real GPS, ICBMs, ALC, 250K grant)

Quote:

>        Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 9
>            "February 24, 1998 -  675 days to go."  WRP65

[Go Read It]

This is the best GPS info I've seen. Go live 1999/11/1, eh? More like go
dead 2000/1/1. Luckily, I don't plan to be lost that day.

INFODEV proposal: Watch what the USA is doing and do everything differently.
Start in 1990. Can I have my money now?

Why regress to paper? We should all collaborate on a Y2K tell all and send
it to everybody with an Email address. (Does this make me a dirty spammer?
Oh my. I am having that delightful tingly feeling I get whe     Stop! Never
mind that! [sound of ruler hitting hand])

Jim Abel



Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report (Real GPS, ICBMs, ALC, 250K grant)

Quote:


>>        Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 9
>>            "February 24, 1998 -  675 days to go."  WRP65

>[Go Read It]

>This is the best GPS info I've seen. Go live 1999/11/1, eh? More like go
>dead 2000/1/1. Luckily, I don't plan to be lost that day.

Whatever happened to 8/22/99?

Quote:
>INFODEV proposal: Watch what the USA is doing and do everything
differently.
>Start in 1990. Can I have my money now?

No!

Quote:
>Why regress to paper? We should all collaborate on a Y2K tell all and send
>it to everybody with an Email address. (Does this make me a dirty spammer?
>Oh my. I am having that delightful tingly feeling I get whe     Stop! Never
>mind that! [sound of ruler hitting hand])

Aching for a "Usenet Death Sentence", are we?

Ciao,

Scott



Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report (Real GPS, ICBMs, ALC, 250K grant)

Quote:


>>This is the best GPS info I've seen. Go live 1999/11/1, eh? More like go
>>dead 2000/1/1. Luckily, I don't plan to be lost that day.

>Whatever happened to 8/22/99?

It rolled over and died.

Quote:
>>INFODEV proposal: Watch what the USA is doing and do everything
>differently.
>>Start in 1990. Can I have my money now?

>No!

OK, start in 1998 and use piles of gold to hire away all the programmers in
the world. How about that?

Quote:
>>Why regress to paper? We should all collaborate on a Y2K tell all and send
>>it to everybody with an Email address. (Does this make me a dirty spammer?
>>Oh my. I am having that delightful tingly feeling I get whe     Stop!
Never
>>mind that! [sound of ruler hitting hand])

>Aching for a "Usenet Death Sentence", are we?

Now Scott, I was talking about Email. I would never disturb the pristine
purity of Usenet with Spam.

Jim Abel



Sun, 13 Aug 2000 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report (Real GPS, ICBMs, ALC, 250K grant)


Quote:
>         Cory Hamasaki's DC Y2K Weather Report V2, # 9
>             "February 24, 1998 -  675 days to go."  WRP65

> intelligence, recently told the House Government Reform and Oversight
> Subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology. "Yet
> I have no doubt that GPS will be ready along with all the other weapon
> systems and command and control systems in the Department of Defense."

Question:  How many major projects has the Pentagon brought in on time?
Now I have read Gen. Pagonis' book and understand that in a quick reaction
scenario like Desert Storm, the US military really does have some
individuals who can get the job done.  But from a project management
perspective, just how good is their track record?

Quote:
> "It looks like that schedule is slipping out," Reaser said. "The

Yep.  Thought so.  Don't feel bad though.  Compared to the FAA and the
IRS, you're probably not doing too badly.

Quote:
> maintenance releases. Though the GPS user segment does not have a year
> 2000 problem per se, it does have a clock overflow problem, the Z-count
> rollover. This rollover occurs every 1,024 weeks; the first one comes in
> August 1999.

In layman's terms this means that they have a DIFFERENT Y2K problem that
the rest of us.  Is this the problem which caused a torpedo to alter
course back towards the firing ship during tests, or is that just a rumor?

Quote:
> 6 months ago, CACI discovered "a major, catastrophic problem" in ICBM launch
> controls.  The launch control system will fail because of a Y2K date and time
> flaw. The failure was fail-safe, as it's supposed to be.  The ICBMs will be
> unlaunchable. Of course, that presents another problem.

> Diane gave a failure time and date which is in the future. Certainly the
> software will be fixed by then, if it is not already fixed.  She would not
> have reported to a user's forum like DC Y2K unless it had already been
> fixed and the fix tested by an IV&V team.

Who knows, they might even get to the point where they THINK that it is
corrected.  My personal opinion on that is that there is no %100 guarantee
that any Y2K problem has been completely corrected, or that other problems
do not exist in the same system.  You can only be %90 sure of correcting
the ones you know about or the ones which you have limited yourself to by
doing triage.

So now I have to add a line to my Y2K todo list.
1) Take out extra cash on 12-31-99
2) Buy extra groceries, batteries, candles
3) Zero out all credit card balances
4) Pay Jan 2000 mortgage early
5) Stay on ground
6) BUILD A *)&^*(&^*^* BOMB SHELTER IN BACKYARD!

I should note that I am not a survivalist.  I am, however, a pessimist and
I figure that the worst that will happen is that I will have to have a
post-Y2K party to use up the extra food.  It is my personal opinion that
some systems will be messed up.  While major banks and financial
companies do have Y2K projects up and running, this is not neccesarily
true for those who are smaller or exist overseas.  The whole settlement
process works by bank A paying back to bank B who pays back to Bank C who
pays back to bank A.  Actually its more of a web with A paying B & C, B
paying A and C, etc.  Some of those banks making settlement are from
overseas.

There have been cases in which a bank has been late for daily settlement.
To my knowledge this has happened with both a US bank and an overseas
bank.  This is so rare that the US incident resulted in congressional
hearings since the bank had to borrow (I think $20 billion) overnight from
reserves.

What happens if there is even a %10 failure rate in the process?

The question is not will there be any problems, but where and how bad?  If
the IRS tanks for a few weeks or months, I don't believe that it will
affect the daily operation of the country.  If the railroads and the FAA
do not make it, there will be an interruption since only so much can be
moved by long-haul trucks.  And are those ship navigation systems going to
be working?  How about gas and oil pipelines?  Electricity generation and
distribution?  Telecommunications?

With the recent blizzard in the Northeast we are getting an idea about
what it is like to be isolated; to have the ATM machines stop dispensing
cash and the credit card terminals go silent; to have no oil or gas
deliveries or phone service.  One reason they were able to handle it so
well was that they knew that it was localized and that it would be fixed
shortly.  Banks were not afraid to let customers withdraw cash without
computer verification of account banlances.

What happens when the blizzard is nationwide with no predictable thaw?

*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*+*

    AITP and Delaware Valley Y2K Special Interest Group



Thu, 17 Aug 2000 03:00:00 GMT  
 
 [ 5 post ] 

 Relevant Pages 

1. DC Y2K Weather Report (ALC 9, power, Time Machines, How Bad)

2. Available: DC Y2K Weather Report #17

3. DC Y2K Weather Report #3

4. DC Y2K Weather Report # 7

5. DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

6. gatherwrite Re: DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

7. DC Y2K Weather Report # 7

8. Available: DC Y2K Weather Report #17

9. DC Y2K Weather Report # 7

10. DC Y2K Weather Report #6

11. DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

12. DC Y2K Weather Report # 11

 

 
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