But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response 
Author Message
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Next time you get asked about Smalltalk usage relative to ana analyst
recommendation, whip out these stories:

http://www.*-*-*.com/ +Executives+and+Manag...

"A September survey by the Gartner Group, a technology     consulting
company, revealed that approximately 40% of information technology
(IT) projects do not produce their intended results, an indication of
how badly some companies need the consulting services of a tech-savvy
CPA. Gartner's prediction that global IT spending will reach $3.3
trillion by 2002 highlighted the broader implications of this
finding."

ok, so in September 2001, Gartner has data showing that 40% of all IT
projects fail.  Now look at this one:

http://www.*-*-*.com/ ,2000025001,202699...

In which they say:

To date, around 70 percent of initial Java implementations have been
unsuccessful, according to new research from Gartner Group.

"An inordinately large number of large-scale Java projects have been
failures," said Mark Driver, Gartner research director for Internet
and ebusiness technologies

Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.  Next
question to pose:

WHY?
<Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
James Robertson
Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk



Tue, 31 May 2005 21:45:13 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Quote:
> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.

Is "they" Gartner?

Quote:
>  Next question to pose:

> WHY?

If "they" is Gartner, why don't you ask them?  Let us know the answer.

Victor

P.S.  If you feel shy about asking direct questions, you can get some
inspiration from Moore's movies "Roger and Me" in the video stores, and
"Bowling for Columbine" currently in the movie theaters.



Quote:
> Next time you get asked about Smalltalk usage relative to ana analyst
> recommendation, whip out these stories:

http://www.cpa2biz.com/ResourceCenters/Financial+Executives+and+Manag...
1_02_pubs_jofa_feb_news_research_shows_high_failu_00827.htm
Quote:

> "A September survey by the Gartner Group, a technology consulting
> company, revealed that approximately 40% of information technology
> (IT) projects do not produce their intended results, an indication of
> how badly some companies need the consulting services of a tech-savvy
> CPA. Gartner's prediction that global IT spending will reach $3.3
> trillion by 2002 highlighted the broader implications of this
> finding."

> ok, so in September 2001, Gartner has data showing that 40% of all IT
> projects fail.  Now look at this one:

http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/enterprise/story/0,2000025001,202699...
tm
Quote:

> In which they say:

> To date, around 70 percent of initial Java implementations have been
> unsuccessful, according to new research from Gartner Group.

> "An inordinately large number of large-scale Java projects have been
> failures," said Mark Driver, Gartner research director for Internet
> and ebusiness technologies

> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.  Next
> question to pose:

> WHY?
> <Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
> James Robertson
> Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk



Wed, 01 Jun 2005 00:58:13 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response
On Fri, 13 Dec 2002 11:58:13 -0500, "Victor Goldberg"

Quote:

>> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
>> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
>> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.

>Is "they" Gartner?

yes

Quote:
>>  Next question to pose:

>> WHY?

>If "they" is Gartner, why don't you ask them?  Let us know the answer.

I last spoke to a Gartner analyst about a year ago.  next time I have
the chance, I'll bring this up.

Quote:
>Victor

>P.S.  If you feel shy about asking direct questions, you can get some
>inspiration from Moore's movies "Roger and Me" in the video stores, and
>"Bowling for Columbine" currently in the movie theaters.



>> Next time you get asked about Smalltalk usage relative to ana analyst
>> recommendation, whip out these stories:

>http://www.cpa2biz.com/ResourceCenters/Financial+Executives+and+Manag...
>1_02_pubs_jofa_feb_news_research_shows_high_failu_00827.htm

>> "A September survey by the Gartner Group, a technology consulting
>> company, revealed that approximately 40% of information technology
>> (IT) projects do not produce their intended results, an indication of
>> how badly some companies need the consulting services of a tech-savvy
>> CPA. Gartner's prediction that global IT spending will reach $3.3
>> trillion by 2002 highlighted the broader implications of this
>> finding."

>> ok, so in September 2001, Gartner has data showing that 40% of all IT
>> projects fail.  Now look at this one:

>http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/enterprise/story/0,2000025001,202699...
>tm

>> In which they say:

>> To date, around 70 percent of initial Java implementations have been
>> unsuccessful, according to new research from Gartner Group.

>> "An inordinately large number of large-scale Java projects have been
>> failures," said Mark Driver, Gartner research director for Internet
>> and ebusiness technologies

>> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
>> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
>> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.  Next
>> question to pose:

>> WHY?
>> <Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
>> James Robertson
>> Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk

<Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
James Robertson
Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk


Wed, 01 Jun 2005 01:55:30 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response


Quote:
> Next time you get asked about Smalltalk usage relative to ana analyst
> recommendation, whip out these stories:

http://www.cpa2biz.com/ResourceCenters/Financial+Executives+and+Manag...
1_02_pubs_jofa_feb_news_research_shows_high_failu_00827.htm
Quote:

> "A September survey by the Gartner Group, a technology consulting
> company, revealed that approximately 40% of information technology
> (IT) projects do not produce their intended results, an indication of
> how badly some companies need the consulting services of a tech-savvy
> CPA. Gartner's prediction that global IT spending will reach $3.3
> trillion by 2002 highlighted the broader implications of this
> finding."

> ok, so in September 2001, Gartner has data showing that 40% of all IT
> projects fail.  Now look at this one:

http://www.zdnet.com.au/newstech/enterprise/story/0,2000025001,202699...
tm

Quote:

> In which they say:

> To date, around 70 percent of initial Java implementations have been
> unsuccessful, according to new research from Gartner Group.

> "An inordinately large number of large-scale Java projects have been
> failures," said Mark Driver, Gartner research director for Internet
> and ebusiness technologies

> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.  Next
> question to pose:

> WHY?

40% of all projects fail and 70% of all Java projects fail, so what's the
rate for non-Java projects :-)

40% * (# of projects) =
    (70% * (Java market share) * (# of projects)
        + (non-Java failure percent) * (1-Java market share) * (# of
projects))

If we assume that Java's market share is 50%, then we get:

40% * (# of projects) =
    (70% * 50% * (# of projects) + (non-Java failure percent) * 50% * (# of
projects))

This can be reduced to:
    40% = 70% * 50% + (non-Java failure percent) * 50%
==>
    40% = 35% + (non-Java failure percent) * 50%
==>
    5% / 50% = non-Java failure percent
==>
    10% = non-Java failure percent (assuming 50% market share)

Ain't statistics fun :-)

John Brant



Wed, 01 Jun 2005 07:10:48 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Quote:



>> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
>> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
>> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.  Next
>> question to pose:

>> WHY?

> 40% of all projects fail and 70% of all Java projects fail, so what's the
> rate for non-Java projects :-)

> 40% * (# of projects) =
>   (70% * (Java market share) * (# of projects)
>       + (non-Java failure percent) * (1-Java market share) * (# of
> projects))

> If we assume that Java's market share is 50%, then we get:

> 40% * (# of projects) =
>   (70% * 50% * (# of projects) + (non-Java failure percent) * 50% * (# of
> projects))

> This can be reduced to:
>   40% = 70% * 50% + (non-Java failure percent) * 50%
> ==>
>   40% = 35% + (non-Java failure percent) * 50%
> ==>
>   5% / 50% = non-Java failure percent
> ==>
>   10% = non-Java failure percent (assuming 50% market share)

> Ain't statistics fun :-)

Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see or
hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons. It's usually people,
budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

An interesting question is what peopleware issue is so common to Java
projects?

Troy.

- Show quoted text -

Quote:

> John Brant



Wed, 01 Jun 2005 22:25:22 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response
If Java isn't the cause of failure, then Java is
statistically only an attribute of a project likely to fail.
  The cause must be management related (business and
techincal).  Choosing Java must be an indication they don't
make good decisions. :-) :-) :-)

Quote:

> Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see or
> hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons. It's usually people,
> budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

> An interesting question is what peopleware issue is so common to Java
> projects?

> Troy.

>>John Brant

--
.tom
remove dashes in email for replies
http://isectd.sourceforge.net


Thu, 02 Jun 2005 01:09:45 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Quote:

> 40% of all projects fail and 70% of all Java projects fail, so what's the
> rate for non-Java projects :-)
 some equations
> Ain't statistics fun :-)

Actually, this is algebra, not statistics.  But we can have even more fun....

Let jms be Java Market Share, and njfr be Non Java Failure Rate.  We have

  .7jms + njfr(1 - jms) = .4

Failure rate for all projects is a weighted average of the java and non-java
failure rates.  Suppose njfr = 0.  The implied Java Market Share is then 4/7,
just over 57%.  So we can say that if Java's market share is greater than 57%,
it can only mean that non-Java projects failure rate is a negative number.
But now we're into JAM territory....

--
Jeff



Thu, 02 Jun 2005 01:43:27 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response
On Sat, 14 Dec 2002 09:25:22 -0500, Troy

<snip>

Quote:

>>   10% = non-Java failure percent (assuming 50% market share)

>> Ain't statistics fun :-)

>Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see or
>hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons. It's usually people,
>budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

>An interesting question is what peopleware issue is so common to Java
>projects?

That's not th part I'm interested in at the moment.  Gartner puts
great stock in their statistics and their analysis.  So when they go
out with stuff like ethis, don't do minima fact checking - i.,e, the
analyst who follows Smalltalk tells clients that Smalltalk vendors are
not improving their products - it's a sign that something is very,
very wrong.  It's time someone stood up to Gartner (et. al.) and told
them that they are mostly full of it.

Quote:
>Troy.

>> John Brant

<Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
James Robertson
Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk


Thu, 02 Jun 2005 03:10:09 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response
Quite true. We talked to two analysts from another organisation however,
and they gave us very positive feedback about Smalltalk in general and
VW in particular. In fact they mentioned that they so no need whatsoever
to move away from Smalltalk at all.

With respect to Java, they were more wary: they are quite convinced that
.Net is out to kill Java and Sun. Given MS's marketing muscle, I dare
say they will achieve it too...

Nick

Quote:

> On Sat, 14 Dec 2002 09:25:22 -0500, Troy

> <snip>


>>>  10% = non-Java failure percent (assuming 50% market share)

>>>Ain't statistics fun :-)

>>Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see or
>>hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons. It's usually people,
>>budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

>>An interesting question is what peopleware issue is so common to Java
>>projects?

> That's not th part I'm interested in at the moment.  Gartner puts
> great stock in their statistics and their analysis.  So when they go
> out with stuff like ethis, don't do minima fact checking - i.,e, the
> analyst who follows Smalltalk tells clients that Smalltalk vendors are
> not improving their products - it's a sign that something is very,
> very wrong.  It's time someone stood up to Gartner (et. al.) and told
> them that they are mostly full of it.

>>Troy.

>>>John Brant

> <Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
> James Robertson
> Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk

--
Nicholas Yannakoyorgos

http://home.btconnect.com/nyannak0


Thu, 02 Jun 2005 04:07:00 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Quote:
> out with stuff like ethis, don't do minima fact checking - i.,e, the
> analyst who follows Smalltalk tells clients that Smalltalk vendors

It is not exactly an industry secret that there's a correlation
between offering these analysts and market research organisations
money for, er, "research" and getting a good report.

I'm really surprised to see that many of these companies still
are considered a credible source of information.



Thu, 02 Jun 2005 06:50:32 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response


<snip>

Using John's math here, if you run with these assumptions:

10% of projects are Java

--- Non Java Failure rate = 37%

20% of projects are Java

-- Non Java Failure rate = 32.5%

30% of projects are Java

-- Non Java Failure rate = 27%

40% of projects are Java

-- Non Java Failure rate = 20%

Kind of explains the word 'inordinate' in the Gartner report on Java
failure rates, ehh?  Whether you believe these numbers isn't really
the point; Gartner's analysts - the ones who follow Smalltalk - do
believe tcthese numbers, and they still spout nonsense about
Smalltalk.  Things like

"Smalltalk vendors are losing interest, and adding no new features"

"Migrate off Smalltalk as soon as you can"

This is the sort of thing Gartner tells clients, in the face of the
above sort of data that they apparently believe.  It's way, way past
time for people to stop respecting Gartner's analysts in this area,
and instead start asking questions themselves

Quote:

>40% of all projects fail and 70% of all Java projects fail, so what's the
>rate for non-Java projects :-)

>40% * (# of projects) =
>    (70% * (Java market share) * (# of projects)
>        + (non-Java failure percent) * (1-Java market share) * (# of
>projects))

>If we assume that Java's market share is 50%, then we get:

>40% * (# of projects) =
>    (70% * 50% * (# of projects) + (non-Java failure percent) * 50% * (# of
>projects))

>This can be reduced to:
>    40% = 70% * 50% + (non-Java failure percent) * 50%
>==>
>    40% = 35% + (non-Java failure percent) * 50%
>==>
>    5% / 50% = non-Java failure percent
>==>
>    10% = non-Java failure percent (assuming 50% market share)

>Ain't statistics fun :-)

>John Brant

<Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
James Robertson
Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk


Thu, 02 Jun 2005 21:16:22 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response
IIRC too many organisations are one person deep in Smalltalk expertise
ie ump{*filter*} managers expect ONE developer to do all the
analysis/design/coding/test/debug/enhancement etc over very many
technologies that are just about implemented without satisfactory
documentation that would be done by 3-20 developers in another
language. Java people get paid more since valued more highly by the
Companies!

Sooner or later that individual either cracks up, has a stroke or
simply gets fed up and tries something else such as manager at local
McDonalds that pays more money!


Quote:
> Next time you get asked about Smalltalk usage relative to ana analyst
> recommendation, whip out these stories:

> http://www.*-*-*.com/ +Executives+and+Manag...

> "A September survey by the Gartner Group, a technology        consulting
> company, revealed that approximately 40% of information technology
> (IT) projects do not produce their intended results, an indication of
> how badly some companies need the consulting services of a tech-savvy
> CPA. Gartner's prediction that global IT spending will reach $3.3
> trillion by 2002 highlighted the broader implications of this
> finding."

> ok, so in September 2001, Gartner has data showing that 40% of all IT
> projects fail.  Now look at this one:

> http://www.*-*-*.com/ ,2000025001,202699...

> In which they say:

> To date, around 70 percent of initial Java implementations have been
> unsuccessful, according to new research from Gartner Group.

> "An inordinately large number of large-scale Java projects have been
> failures," said Mark Driver, Gartner research director for Internet
> and ebusiness technologies

> Then, you point out the fact that both pieces of data come from
> Gartner.  So, in their own words, an inordinate number of Java
> projects fail.  And yet they still recommend it over Smalltalk.  Next
> question to pose:

> WHY?
> <Talk Small and Carry a Big Class Library>
> James Robertson
> Product Manager, Cincom Smalltalk



Sat, 04 Jun 2005 19:31:57 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response



Quote:

> Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see or
> hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons. It's usually
people,
> budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

Sure they choose Java because it is recommended on every magazine, they use
threads because it's one of Java's features, then they have no idea they
need to synchronize some things, then they learn, only to realize that race
conditions are replaced by deadlocks, etc.

Adding too much technological change (and risk) is typically one of the
biggest mistakes for a high-tech project. Hiring experts is the way to avoid
those risks, but usually companies decide to hire rookies instead.

Quote:

> An interesting question is what peopleware issue is so common to Java
> projects?

A bunch of rookies with a lot of schedule pressure?
Quote:

> Troy.

> > John Brant



Tue, 16 Aug 2005 12:07:20 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Quote:
> It's usually
> people,
> > budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

In one word, politics, lol.

Quote:
> > Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see
or
> > hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons.

. . . and it seems rare to choose a technology based on technical reasons as
well.  If the person doing the selling is not getting the right answer then
they move up higher in the chain of command.  The 'higher ups' do not
understand the technical aspects of it but things are explained to them in
terms of numbers (money).  Buy this and save on that.

Look at all the insanity going on where companies are taking perfectly good
working software and rewriting it in, or trying to rewrite it in Java or C#,
etc.

-g


Quote:




"John

> > Statistics are grand! My problem with any of this is that I rarely see
or
> > hear of projects failing for purely technical reasons. It's usually
> people,
> > budget, communication, inflexibility, or something along those lines.

> Sure they choose Java because it is recommended on every magazine, they
use
> threads because it's one of Java's features, then they have no idea they
> need to synchronize some things, then they learn, only to realize that
race
> conditions are replaced by deadlocks, etc.

> Adding too much technological change (and risk) is typically one of the
> biggest mistakes for a high-tech project. Hiring experts is the way to
avoid
> those risks, but usually companies decide to hire rookies instead.

> > An interesting question is what peopleware issue is so common to Java
> > projects?

> A bunch of rookies with a lot of schedule pressure?

> > Troy.

> > > John Brant



Tue, 16 Aug 2005 14:53:31 GMT  
 But Smalltalk isn't mainstream - response

Quote:

>  Hiring experts is the way to avoid
> those risks, but usually companies decide to hire rookies instead.

Maybe they can't tell the difference between an expert and a rookie?

Maybe managers believe claims of "expertise", because they can't judge
expertise for themselves?  Thus they think they *are* hiring experts?

Maybe it takes an expert to know who else is expert?

Nevin



Wed, 17 Aug 2005 09:24:00 GMT  
 
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