DC Y2K Weather Report # 4 
Author Message
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Excellent post, Factual with a comedic flair that I have seen very
few times in my life.

The place I work at, (Y2K project)
were prepared to hire 20 Programmers for the project,
they found only 7, I was one of them, lucky for me that I taught
myself COBOL last summer :">

Now they will be placing another ad for IT professionals that they can
TEACH COBOL TO.......

There not paying top dollar, but good money...
But I will tell you this though, they're scared, really scared
that somewhere down the road some one is going to come in and
take the whole Dept, with a offer of big bucks.

But for now I'll get the experience that I need, I'll bide my time,
then perhaps in 9 months to a year, when companies are starting to panic
and they won't care what it takes.... just make the Y2K problem go away.
I'll make my move and get me some, Hey it won't last forever.

To all those people out there that thought that they didn't need a
4 digit date field for the year because it won't be around then anyways.
You know who you are, I've got one thing to say. THANK-YOU

                                                        Peace



Thu, 19 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Cory Hamasaki's DC Area Y2K Weather Report #4

It's Happened! This Sunday's Washington Post Front Page Story is about
the Year 2000 Crisis, old grey head programmers earning big bucks, and
companies hounding mainframers out of retirement in Florida.

To those who still think this is just hype, read the Post's article a
few times.

You can bring up the full story at http://www.washingtonpost.com, here
are a few fair-use doctrine quotes, my rude, self-serving, opinionated
comments are in parenthesis.

---------------

Older Programmers May Fix Future

By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
Washington Post Staff Writer

Sunday, March 2, 1997;  Page A01  ( <---<<<< Front Page Stuff!! )

LARGO, Fla. Five years ago, Donald Fowler's employer in
Gaithersburg (They later mention that Don's employer was IBM.)
coaxed him into early retirement, telling him that his skill in
programming mainframe computers was a thing of the past.

Demoralized, he eventually moved here to vegetate on the beach and hone
his golf game.   (Demoralized! Those idiots! )

A few months ago, though, a humbled Corporate America came calling
on the 52-year-old Fowler. A software firm begged for his help in
reprogramming old mainframes so they will believe that there will be a
year 2000.

(Crawl! Crawl to me with bags of money on your back!)

  ...

.. tapping away on a computer and pulling down a salary that would make
young programmers in Silicon Valley envious.

(Don is earning lots of money now.  Good for Don.)

.. "the revenge of the dinosaurs," said Mark W. Walztoni, vice
president of human resources at Computer Horizons Corp., a large
information technology company in Mountain Lakes, N.J. "These are people
who, three or four years ago, somebody sat across a desk and said, 'Bad
news.  Your skills are out of date.' Now they're saying, 'We don't
really mean it. Why don't you come back?  ...

(Only if you bring lots of money.  A woman was recently told that she
better learn Lotus Notes Administration if she wanted to keep working;
she's a S/370 assembly language programmer with an MS in Computer
Science and 20 years experience.  She refused, she will be earning a
quarter million a year before this is over.)

.. businesses and government agencies are scrambling to find anyone and
everyone who knows the aging languages. Over the next three years
500,000 to 700,000 additional programmers  will need to go to work in
the United States alone ...

(Given that there are only 900,000 COBOL programmers now, the estimates
of rate increases are greatly understated.   Panic, panic NOW, for I
have touched the sky and it is falling.)

"The gray-haired folks are here because of our talent," said Fowler,
who admits his golf game has slipped a bit since he returned to work.

(But Don is laughing all the way to the bank.  Remember this is a guy
who was forceably early-retired at the age of 47 because his skills were
useless.  Don't worry Don, you can retire again in 5 years but you'll
have an extra million dollars in the bank then.  I wonder what Don's old
boss and his boss are doing now?  Did they read about him, slap their
heads and hollar, "Doh!" in tandem?  Do they admit to themselves that
they are numbskis?  Are they still in denial?  Is corporate America as
stupid as it appears to be?)

.. In a few weeks Computer Horizons, which wants to hire 1,500 COBOL
programmers this year, plans to send a letter and a small wooden
hourglass symbol of the company's date-conversion effort to 5,000 of
its retirees, urging them to rejoin the company, Walztoni said.

(They want to hire 1,500 COBOL programmers? Hahahahaha, -cough-,
-sputter-, this is a funny.  On one hand, a company announces that they
want to hire 1,500 COBOL programmers, and on the other, I get flamed in
comp.software.year-2000 for hyping up the demand. I've been understating
the issue!  You companies out there, if you expect to survive, you
better have mainframe programmers on staff or on retainer NOW because
in a couple months, there will be no one available at ANY PRICE.)

..

Computer Sciences offered retirees the option of working part time and
promised to pay them a $1,000 bounty if they could refer someone else
to the company. ($1,000?  Try $5,000.  Don't you guys get it. This is
not a drill, the building isn't on fire, a firestorm is overrunning the
entire country. )

..

Depending on their responsibilities, some COBOL experts can be paid
$100,000 or more, Walztoni said.

(There it is, the Washington Post says $100,000 for COBOL.  Again, you
doubters, don't bother responding to me, write to the Washington Post.
Give them the benefit of your ?wisdom?)

.. But college students today are taught cutting-edge programming
languages such as C++ and Java, not COBOL and fortran, making them
largely useless for conversion tasks without extensive retraining.  ...

(C++, JAVA, useless crap.  It will take years to train them in JCL,
IEBGENER control cards, the IDCAMS REPRO verb, linkage editor control
statements, S/370 machine language dumps, and other useful skills.  Can
you spell E-X-C-P-V-R?  Does .G0013V00 mean anything to you?  Hey! Look
that module is gatherwriting the master file.)

"A 25-year-old project manager doesn't have the same skills a
65-year-old one does," said Andy Gajda, Mindware's recruiting director.
"These old guys are a tremendous asset. They know how to handle large
projects."   ...

(And a 65 year old project manager will get the job done.  He knows what
works and what doesn't.)

(The Article closes with a human interest touch.)

"It's almost like the movie 'Cocoon' here," Gajda said. "These guys
had become callous and taken retirement to sit out on the beach. Now
that they're working on projects, they're like kids again."

(It's bringing -sob- tears to my eyes.  It's so, so heart warming.)

---------------

There it is.  FRONT PAGE on the Washington Post.  Rates, demand,
unambiguous, spelled out so that any idiot can understand that Y2K is
a huge problem, salaries and consulting rates are spinning up.  This is
not a drill, this IS the big one.

The article mentioned that lists of 10 names of mainframe programmers
are worth $250.  You could make a good living just selling names.

Companies better get their orders in to IBM, Hitachi, Amdahl,
etc. for mainframes for their remediation development and test centers.
Forget that LPAR nonsense, just build a mainframe data center but don't
delay.  It takes months to build a mainframe center. The fastest I ever
put one up was 2 months from conception to running jobs and logging on
to TSO.

The Washington Post has their job classified ads online now. Follow the
link from their front page to the classifieds and click on the database.
It's a little more work than my predigested job summary but you have the
full text and background information on the companies. I will continue
to abstract and summarize especially interesting listings in the Post to
save you the time of doing the full search.

I encourage you to clip this and pass it around, email it to your
programmer friends, post it in your coffee room or on your cube wall.

..give it to your boss and his boss.  Let me tell them, it's almost
time for the first quarterly bonus.  If you don't dig deep and give til
it hurts, the programmers will start slipping away.  I figure a $2,000
bonus check at the end of March will be just fine.  The June bonus
should be more though, $5,000 is a good number for June.  $10,000 for
September and close out the year with $15,000 checks.  Your valuable
mainframe programmers will love you for it.

Think of the smiling faces when you stroll around and hand out these
checks.  Here's the picture, you hand him an envelope, "Thanks Jim, for
sticking with us, doing that valuable COBOL stuff.  Here is your bonus
for the first quarter of this year." shake his hand firmly and move on
to the next mainframer.  Jim calls home, what a great company, lets go
out to dinner tonight.

This way you can keep paying them on the old schedule, $60,000
per year.  As long as you keep handing out these checks every quarter,
they'll stay.  It'll be more next year but much cheaper than trying to
hire new programmers.  If you think 32K of bonus money is a lot, ask
ISSC, Andersen, Coops, KPMG, or EDS what they want to place a full time
mainframe programmer in your shop.  I know what they charge.  "You can't
handle the truth!"

Give as if your job and the survival of your company depends upon how
generous the mainframe programmer's bonus is.

Note to programmers, keep track. If your company hasn't made a good
faith effort, it's time to bail.  Stock is good, a company car is OK,
cash is best.

Cory Hamasaki     http://www.kiyoinc.com
HHResearch Co.    OS/2 Webstore & Newsletter
REDWOOD - Y2K remediation tool in public Beta.



Fri, 20 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4


Quote:

>Cory Hamasaki's DC Area Y2K Weather Report #4

>It's Happened! This Sunday's Washington Post Front Page Story is about
>the Year 2000 Crisis, old grey head programmers earning big bucks, and
>companies hounding mainframers out of retirement in Florida.

>To those who still think this is just hype, read the Post's article a
>few times.

>You can bring up the full story at http://www.washingtonpost.com, here
>are a few fair-use doctrine quotes, my rude, self-serving, opinionated
>comments are in parenthesis.

That was the most alarmist, one-sided, opinionated, cynical, mercenary
and generally cross-grained article I've read in a very long time. I
loved it.
--

Editor, NEWS/400.uk             +44 (0)161 929 0777


Fri, 20 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:

> Cory Hamasaki's DC Area Y2K Weather Report #4

Cory:

NYC update:

The Sunday Times had 12 Year2000 ads on the 4 pages of 'programmer' ads.
No rates were posted.  Keane advertised here too.

/Jim/
--
James P. Egan    | Integrated Architectures, Inc.



Fri, 20 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:

>>It's Happened! This Sunday's Washington Post Front Page Story is about
>>the Year 2000 Crisis, old grey head programmers earning big bucks, and
>>companies hounding mainframers out of retirement in Florida.
>That was the most alarmist, one-sided, opinionated, cynical, mercenary
>and generally cross-grained article I've read in a very long time. I
>loved it.

He does pretty good, doesn't he! <grin>  

Now if the press were to read Cory's statements they'd get real
cynical about him and others trying to warn management, stockholders,
directors, senior civil servants, etc, etc, etc about this problem.

Those in the know, of course, are nodding their heads in complete
agreement.

Tony (retired from IBM minis, S/32-AS/400 and won't be going back.)
----
Tony Toews, Independent Computer Consultant
Jack of a few computer related trades and master (or certified) of none.
Microsoft Access Hints & Tips: Accounting Systems, Winfax Pro, Reports
and Books at http://www.granite.ab.ca/accsmstr.htm



Sat, 21 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4



Quote:

> >>It's Happened! This Sunday's Washington Post Front Page Story is about
> >>the Year 2000 Crisis, old grey head programmers earning big bucks, and
> >>companies hounding mainframers out of retirement in Florida.

> >That was the most alarmist, one-sided, opinionated, cynical, mercenary
> >and generally cross-grained article I've read in a very long time. I
> >loved it.

> He does pretty good, doesn't he! <grin>  

> Now if the press were to read Cory's statements they'd get real
> cynical about him and others trying to warn management, stockholders,
> directors, senior civil servants, etc, etc, etc about this problem.

> Those in the know, of course, are nodding their heads in complete
> agreement.

I love Cory's postings and he is very close to the truth.  Many companies
are just beginning to start their Y2K projects and they have no idea how
hard is it going to be to get the competent people.  The salaries for
programmers in U.S. will go up, but not as quickly or not as high as some
in this newsgroup would like you to believe.  Comapanies can always go
off-shore and find cheaper labor.  Yes, there are limitations to this
approach (don't tell me what these are, I already know them), but you do it
because it saves you money.  It can be done and it is being done.  If you
want to do it for your company and need help, send me an e-mail at

familiarize yourself with our approach.  You don't need to pay $150 per
hour for a programmer.  Not yet, at least.  (In one year, may be.)

Vikram Kulkarni



Sat, 21 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:

> Cory Hamasaki's DC Area Y2K Weather Report #4

> It's Happened! This Sunday's Washington Post Front Page Story is about
> the Year 2000 Crisis, old grey head programmers earning big bucks, and
> companies hounding mainframers out of retirement in Florida.

> To those who still think this is just hype, read the Post's article a
> few times.

> You can bring up the full story at http://www.*-*-*.com/ , here
> are a few fair-use doctrine quotes, my rude, self-serving, opinionated
> comments are in parenthesis.

> ---------------

> Older Programmers May Fix Future

> By Rajiv Chandrasekaran
> Washington Post Staff Writer

> Sunday, March 2, 1997;  Page A01  ( <---<<<< Front Page Stuff!! )

Excellent, Cory. I found the article very good. I completely agree that
these experienced "white-hairs" are going to be an important factor
helping us get through this mess--bravo to all of them and thank you.
However, I think the article was a bit misleading and a bit
finger-pointing.  I'm not trying to distract from the intent of the
article, but I just hate the bad perceptions that are continuously
created by certain comments:

"reprogramming old mainframes"

I though it was the applications (for the most part) that needed fixing.
Is that old IBM 360/40 or RCA Spectra 70/45 still on the floor?

"older systems use a two-digit dating system"

There's new stuff with date problems, too.

"Many of the retirees designed the very systems they're now being asked
to fix--a claim to fame that cuts two ways.  "the people who can solve a
big part of the problem are the same people that brought you the
problem," said Howard A. Rubin, a professor of computer science at
Hunter College in New York."

Here we go again.  Blame it on the programmer.  He planned the problem
30 years ago just so he could be called out of retirement to fix it.
With the new cloning advances in the news, maybe they should scour the
gravyards for "Cobol DNA".  Now that would solve the shortage of Cobol
progammers.

"...which are often written in the COBOL or Fortran programming
languages, the Greek and Latin of the computer world."

Greek . . 'C', Basic . . Latin

"They (IBM) were saying, 'The mainframe is dead,' "Fowler recalled.
"they said they didn't need our talent."

Now this is a new one for me.  IBM calling their own mainframe dead?
Surely that was a very bad excuse for down-sizing.  If not, it has to be
as profound of a statement as IBM believing the PC would never amount to
anything (which they did).

".. But college students today are taught cutting-edge programming
languages such as C++ and Java, not COBOL and Fortran, making them
largely useless for conversion tasks without extensive retraining...."

Cutting-edge.  No comment, except to say that with all this cutting-edge
stuff, their sure is a lot of {*filter*} on the floor.

I just wish the journalist were better informed on this subject, and
would quit relegating the Y2K problem as an exclusive Mainframe/COBOL
problem, and that everything about the Mainframe is old.  If you took
these comments literally for the way they sound, it congers up a vision
of a machine that was turned on, locked up in a sealed cave, and just
left to run the business world.  We would never have had to open the
cave door again had it not been for the Y2K problem.

Just think of it--if it wasn't for that damn date, you'd would never of
had to touch those apps.  How does it feel to be immortal?

Mike Dodas - Sometimes I'm just like a moth:  I'm attracted to the flame
and get burned.  Oh well, I like mine well-done anyway.



Sat, 21 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4


Quote:
>I though it was the applications (for the most part) that needed fixing.
>Is that old IBM 360/40 or RCA Spectra 70/45 still on the floor?

Could be, recall the 360/40 that was discovered running production for a
corporation out west in 1995.

Quote:

>There's new stuff with date problems, too.

Yes, you and I know that but the reporters don't.  We have to educate
them.

Quote:

>Here we go again.  Blame it on the programmer.  He planned the problem
>30 years ago just so he could be called out of retirement to fix it.

I started work in 1969.  I recall one of the old timers, a guy who might
have been 45, telling me that there would be a problem at the end of
the century.  As a 22 year old, with the end of the century still 30
years away,  I didn't see that as a big problem or my problem.

Since the guy who cautioned me about the problem will be 75, if he's
still alive, it's not fair to blame him either.

Isn't this like worrying about running out of fossil fuels or global
warming?

Quote:

>"They (IBM) were saying, 'The mainframe is dead,' "Fowler recalled.
>"they said they didn't need our talent."

>Now this is a new one for me.  IBM calling their own mainframe dead?
>Surely that was a very bad excuse for down-sizing.  If not, it has to be
>as profound of a statement as IBM believing the PC would never amount to
>anything (which they did).

Yes, it's amazing what management, even IBM management can come up with.
<Oh, Hi Sherry! -she's turning beet red.>  On the mainframe front, IBM
has essentially abandoned ECL technology for CMOS, this has opened the
door for massive Skyline (the Hitachi high performance mainframe) sales.

There are certainly savage arguments continuing at IBM over that
decision.  -growl- -snarl- -ECL- -bark- -PC/390- -yipyip-

Quote:

>I just wish the journalist were better informed on this subject, and
>would quit relegating the Y2K problem as an exclusive Mainframe/COBOL
>problem, and that everything about the Mainframe is old.

Don't be so {*filter*} the journalists.  Compare them to MIS directors and
IT VPs.  That's a really clueless bunch.   How about the HR staff?  The
journalists don't have time to bone up on all the computer-geek stuff.
The MIS directors and IT VPs are supposed to.

Quote:

>Mike Dodas - Sometimes I'm just like a moth:  I'm attracted to the flame
>and get burned.  Oh well, I like mine well-done anyway.

Cory Hamasaki   http://www.*-*-*.com/
HHResearch Co.  OS/2 Webstore & Newsletter
REDWOOD        


Sun, 22 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:

>Cory Hamasaki's DC Area Y2K Weather Report #4

>It's Happened! This Sunday's Washington Post Front Page Story is about
>the Year 2000 Crisis, old grey head programmers earning big bucks, and

Hey you forgot to include the funniest sniplet in the whole story ...
the one where some industry leaders (I'm paraphrasing here ...) are
discussing using welfare recipients to scan lines of code, looking for
2 digit dates ... I almost hit the floor laughing ... if that ever
becomes reality you can guarantee COBOL programming will be a lucrative
position well into the 21st century ... but then again, after seeing
some of the shoddy code written, maybe not ...


Sun, 22 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:


>"They (IBM) were saying, 'The mainframe is dead,' "Fowler recalled.
>"they said they didn't need our talent."

>Now this is a new one for me.  IBM calling their own mainframe dead?
>Surely that was a very bad excuse for down-sizing.  If not, it has to be
>as profound of a statement as IBM believing the PC would never amount to
>anything (which they did).

I seem to remember  IBM saying "the Systems Programmer
is no longer necessary", not that the Mainframe was dead.

Management of course took immediate advantage of this as they could
now get rid of all these expensive "non-yes-people" whose function
they did not understand anyway. System programming then became a
"junior" or "gopher" type position, chasing APAR references or
(daringly) applying PUT service.

The skilled people went on to more lucrative and fulfilling positions
but the Companies lost vital resources.

I bitterly remember trying to do damage control by running a six month
Systems Programming course. It was a total disaster because nobody
had the prereqs (Assembler, VSAM, JCL etc). These people thought
dumps were paper for sending to kindergartens and that registers
were things at the supermarket checkout counter.

It is a culture thing. We have killed the old "in-depth" skills and
substituted superficiality. Admittedly cheaper, but when you
understand that the world is moving to a Knowledge driven base,
very unwise.

Somebody once described Foxhunting as "The Unspeakable in pursuit
of the Inedible", I would describe current computing management as
"The Inept in pursuit of the Unattainable".

The World has changed. Management must become Leadership.
Individuals with Knowledge are a critical resource, not to be lightly
dumped. Skills are a scarce and vital resource. The old days when
workers were "interchangeable and replaceable" are long gone.

The current lack of response (let alone action) regarding Y2k
is just a symptom of a general management malaise.

Maybe we need Y2k to be a really good meltdown disaster and thus
get rid of the deadwood and 19th century mentalities.

----------------------------------------------------------------


www.cinderella.co.za   -  Striving to achieve Year 2000 Compliance
----------------------------------------------------------------                



Mon, 23 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

To train people without a programming background to be COBOL
programmers, what is the best approach?
What is the experience with CBT?
Is it best to train on site?
To train a little, then have them do some limited work, then train some
more, etc.?



Mon, 23 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:

> To train people without a programming background to be COBOL
> programmers, what is the best approach?
> What is the experience with CBT?
> Is it best to train on site?
> To train a little, then have them do some limited work, then train some
> more, etc.?

In the late 1970's we had a severe shortage of COBOL programmers coming
out of University and community college.  I designed and conducted a
course to train novice COBOL programmers.  Some are still working as
'tradesman' programmers.

The first and most critical step was to select the best students.  Part
of our government funding depended on us using unemployed youth that had
been out of school for at least two years.  We insisted on at least
grade 10 completion in an acidemic program.  I don't remember where we
found the aptitude test that we used.  It was specifically designed to
identify those that could think logically.

We started with ten students.  There were twelve weeks in the
classroom.  Lecturse were from 8:30 till 11:30 and 2:30 till 4:30.  The
remainder if the regular working day was supervided lab time.  The
students had full access to RJE and timesharing terminals, 24 hours 6
days.  On an average they spent 12 hours a day in the classroom/lab.

The course started with the regular intro to computers for a couple of
days.  Then we started on program logic.  First flowcharting with
walkthroughs.  By the end of the first week we were writing COBOL code.
Over the next couple of months the assignments got harder and we covered
the entire COBOL syntax.  We taught programming style and debugging ols
spagetti code.  About one third of the lectures were on non-programming
- accounting, technical writing, data communications, JCL, timesharlig,
etc.

There was frequent testing.  Every Thursday morning there was a one hour
test.  Results were posted Friday morning. A grade of less than 80% got
the student a real programmer as a tutor for Friday afternoon and a
review by me , the instructor, on Monday.

The classroom training was followed by six months of on job training
with half a day per week back in the classroom.

After one year we had five productive programmers.  It was a win win
project.  The five were now permanently employed at a reasonable wage.
We had five 'captive' programmers, without recognized diplomas they did
not get hired away as quickly.  The costs to our company were high: One
senior programmer that had teaching experience for about 1/2 a year.
We  provided all teaching materials, classroom, computing resources,
etc.  The Government funding paid the students a reasonable wage for the
first eight months.

Charlie Goodman
{*filter*}share Ltd.
Winnipeg, Canada



Tue, 24 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 DC Y2K Weather Report # 4

Quote:

> ...
> The World has changed. Management must become Leadership.
> Individuals with Knowledge are a critical resource, not to be lightly
> dumped. Skills are a scarce and vital resource. The old days when
> workers were "interchangeable and replaceable" are long gone.

> The current lack of response (let alone action) regarding Y2k
> is just a symptom of a general management malaise.

> Maybe we need Y2k to be a really good meltdown disaster and thus
> get rid of the deadwood and 19th century mentalities.

This will probably never happen because almost all management these
days comes out of MBA programs.  Somehow, these programs remove their
brains.  It used to be that management knew what was going on and
actually had knowlege of the operations and products of the company.  
None of them were MBAs and almost all rose through the ranks because
they were usually better than most of the others.  There were usually
only a couple of levels as well.  Nowadays, they are all MBAs, are
completely interchangeable, and know absolutely nothing except where
to get the best deal on a beamer and how to do the hair properly (in
order to rise to the top ranks one must have "the hair").  There are
zillions of levels - you have VPs reporting to VPs reporting to VPs
(at least we do).

--
Don Nelson



Tue, 24 Aug 1999 03:00:00 GMT  
 
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